यदा वा पश्येत् व्यसनी परः प्रकृतिव्यसनं वास्य शेएषप्रकृतिभिरप्रतिकार्यं स्वचक्रपीडिता विरक्ता वास्य प्रकृतयः कर्शिता निरुत्साहाः परस्पराद्वा भिन्नाः शक्या लोभयितुमग्न्युदकव्याधिमरकदुर्भिक्षनिमित्तं क्षीणयुग्यपुरुषनिचयरक्षाविधानः परः इति तदा विगृह्य यायात् ॥ कZ_०७.४.१५ ॥
yadā vā paśyet vyasanī paraḥ prakṛtivyasanaṃ vāsya śeṣaprakṛtibhir apratikāryaṃ svacakrapīḍitā viraktā vāsya prakṛtayaḥ karśitā nirutsāhāḥ parasparād vā bhinnāḥ śakyā lobhayitum agnyudakavyādhimarakadurbhikṣanimittaṃ kṣīṇayugyapuruṣanicayarakṣāvidhānaḥ paraḥ iti tadā vigṛhya yāyāt
Or, when he observes that the enemy is afflicted by calamities—so that a crisis in one element of the enemy’s state cannot be remedied by the remaining elements; that the enemy’s constituents are oppressed by their own regime, alienated, emaciated, lacking morale, or mutually divided and thus can be induced by offers; that the enemy is weakened by fire, flood, disease, epidemic, or famine; and that the enemy’s arrangements for protecting transport animals, manpower reserves, and defenses are depleted—then he should initiate hostilities and march.
Non-remediable crisis in state-elements, disaffection and division among constituents, disaster-driven depletion (fire/flood/disease/epidemic/famine), and weakened logistics/reserves/defenses.
A state collapses when one element fails and the others cannot compensate; this is an actionable intelligence indicator for intervention.